We have made predictions for all of the games in the NFL Divisional playoff round. All picks will be made without the spread since it's the playoffs and we're not trying to give out betting advice.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Saturday, 4:30 PM
The two teams meet for the third time this season. Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh, 17-14, in Week 4 (with Roethlisberger still serving a suspension) in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh turned the tides in Week 13, with a 13-10 victory in Baltimore. Both games have been decided by a field goal. The Ravens are coming off a 30-7 victory against the Chiefs, while the Steelers had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
Anquan Boldin. If Boldin gets space to work, I can see the Ravens winning this one. His ability to run in traffic after the catch is second to none among wide receivers. The key will be catching those passes behind the linebackers and working against the secondary. Think back to Super Bowl XLIII and the damage done by Boldin and Fitzgerald once they got into open space.
Brian
Baltimore: Red-zone offense. Baltimore clearly outplayed the Chiefs in their matchup last week, but still only held a 16-7 lead late in the third quarter. The Baltimore defense forced 5 turnovers, but the Chiefs defense held the Ravens to field goals three times in the red zone, including a goal-line stand. Against the stingy Pittsburgh defense, it will be critical for Baltimore to make the most of any red zone chances. Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns could be costly.
Pittsburgh: The offensive line. The Ravens defense can be terrifying, but it is even more so with the Steelers offensive line struggles (43 sacks, 8th worst in the NFL). Getting pressure on Roethlisberger is the key to forcing turnovers and keeping him from finding his big weapons down the field. Flozell Adams and Chris Kemoatu will also have to work on avoiding holding calls, which have plagued them this season.
Prediction
Matt
Originally I was going to go with the Ravens in this one, but I just don't see the Steelers losing to the same team at home twice in the same year. Rashard Mendenhall's ability to run with power between the tackles could be the deciding factor. Both teams have punishing defenses, yet the Ravens run defense has been able to fall off from it's former glory. Steelers 24, Ravens 14
Brian
This game will once again come down to a field goal, but with the reemergence of Ray Rice recently and a healthy Todd Heap, I believe the Ravens will come out on top. Ravens 24, Steelers 21
Green Bay at Atlanta - Saturday 8:00 PM
The two teams meet again, after their thriller in Week 12. Atlanta came out on top, 20-17, in front of their home crowd. The Packers are coming off a big win against the favored Eagles in Philadelphia, whereas the Falcons were the top seed in the NFC and have home field advantage.
X-Factors
Matt
James Starks. If Starks has success on the ground like he did in the Eagles game, I just can't see the Packers losing this one. By using the "grind it out" style the Packer defense, which thrives on it's outside speed, should stay fresh letting them play at a higher level.
Brian
Green Bay: John Kuhn. The Packers have been very consistent in converting third-and-short situations, mainly due to the power rushing of John Kuhn. Last week in Philadelphia, the Eagles stopped Kuhn twice on third and short situations, leading to scoring drives. If Kuhn can be a factor in this game, on third-downs and also to spell Starks/Jackson effectively, it will be a long day for the Falcons defense.
Atlanta: Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez. Everyone knows that Roddy White has been the MVP for the Falcons this year, registering 115 catches for 1389 yards and 10 TD’s. However, he has the tall task of going up against Charles Woodson, the reigning defensive player of the year. That matchup is intriguing, but the big x-factor will be how Atlanta’s secondary targets, Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez, perform. He will be covered mainly by Tremond Williams, who registered the game-ending interception against Philly and was a huge pro-bowl snub this year. Nick Collins is also a threat at safety, so Jenkins and Gonzalez will have to find seams to help Ryan when White is blanketed by Woodson.
Prediction
Matt
This is the only road team I'm taking this weekend, even though they are playing one the best home teams in the NFL. The Falcons have been the steadiest team in the NFL this season, while not being spectacular they have been impressively consistent. It's tough to point to anything that stands out, but they are very good in all fazes of the game. While execution can take you deep into the playoffs, I just don't see it taking them past the Packers. The ability to run the ball during last week's game against the Eagles makes the Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense that much more dangerous. Packers 27, Falcons 23
Brian
This game will be close, but Atlanta holds at home. Matt Ryan is 20-2 in his career, and I don’t see him losing here. Atlanta 28, Green Bay 21
Seattle at Chicago
The teams met early in the season, with Seattle stunning the Bears 23-20 in Chicago. The Seahawks pulled off the upset of the playoffs with a 41-36 win over the defending champion Saints, while the Bears are the second seed in the NFC and had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
The weather. Since Chicago's winter weather is so unpredictable and Soldier Field is the windiest stadium in the NFL, it's possible this game could be decided by the conditions. Heavy snow, high wind or brutal temperatures could play a major role. Bad weather still favors the Bears since they have the superior defense, but it could turn into field position battle, which could go either way.
Brian
Seattle: Defense. The Seahawks proved something that everyone knew against the Saints: their defense is still bad. Against the Saints, however, they were able to feast on their home crowd and on the Saints weak secondary. The Bears are a totally different animal on defense. They will not score 41 points this week to bail them out, so the key will be for their defense to pester Jay Cutler and hope that he makes mistakes.
Chicago: Pass rush. Matt Hasselbeck, although he has made mistakes this year, can still get it done barring that he has time to survey the field. It will be critical for the Bears to rattle Matt Hasselbeck and force him to throw on the run/out of the pocket. Hasselbeck is prone to turnovers, and he was able to avoid them last week. If the Bears can force Hasselbeck into some easy turnovers, this game will become a laugher in a hurry.
Prediction
Matt
Watching last week's Saints @ Seahawks game I felt more like the Saints defense was blowing it rather than the Seahawks offense winning it. This was shown by the astoundingly poor tackling on Marshawn Lynch's game sealing run. That being said, this game is not in Seattle. The Seahawks offense will need to go into the notoriously bad weather of Soldier Field in January , while trying to score on one of the NFL's stingiest defenses. I just don't see that happnening. While I don't expect the Bears to light up the scoreboard, they will score enough to win. Bears 17, Seahawks 7
Brian
The magic runs out for Seattle. The Bears play stingy defense, and pound the weak Seattle defense all day. Bears 35, Seattle 10
New York Jets at New England
The most hyped of the matchups. New England lost to the Jets, in the Meadowlands, way back in Week 2 by a score of 28-14. Since then, the Patriots have only gone 13-1, with the lone bump being a surprising loss to the Browns. This also included a 45-3 whooping of the Jets in their last matchup. The Jets were the 6th seed in the AFC, and defeated the Colts on a last second field goal 17-16 in their wild card matchup. The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC, and had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
Coaching. While Rex Ryan is a very successful defensive coach any way you look at it, he does not seem to have the correct makeup for a head coach. During this season he has shown poor game management skills, which have included some strange timeouts and some dubious challenges. His opposition is widely regarded as the best active coach and is arguably one of the greatest head coaches the NFL has ever seen.
Brian
New York: Mark Sanchez. It might seem like a cop out to say the QB is the X-Factor, but in this case, it is true. The only player that had an off-game against the Colts was Mark Sanchez. His completion percentage was low, and he threw a costly interception in the end zone. His running backs had a great game, but Sanchez still consistently overthrew receivers. He made a big throw at the end to get his team the victory, but it is imperative that he makes very few mistakes. We all know that his counterpart, the almost certain NFL MVP Tom Brady, will not make those types of mistakes.
New England: Defensive line. The Jets are always more dangerous when they run the ball well. Against the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene looked rejuvenated, and were the key to winning in Indianapolis. The Patriots defensive line is their weak link on defense, being held together by the strong play of Vince Wilfork. Mike Wright and Myron Pryor are hurt, which could lead to less pressure on Sanchez. Sanchez is not accurate by any means, but if he gets more time due to a lack of pass rush, he has some dangerous weapons.
Prediction
Matt
If the Patriots had won both regular season matchups, I would have actually gone with the Jets in this one, based on the fact that it's nearly impossible to beat the same good team 3 times in a season. Despite that, I don't see this being nearly the blowout that we saw in Week 13. I think it's clear that while the Jets have more raw talent, the Patriots squeeze more out of their talent than any other team in the league. Patriots 31, Jets 13
Brian
The Patriots will not blow out the Jets. In fact, the Jets have looked better recently, so I expect the game to be a lot closer than the 45-3 pounding last time. That being said, very few teams beat Tom Brady in Foxboro, and the Jets will have very few mistakes to capitalize on. Patriots 34, Jets 24
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Saturday, 4:30 PM
The two teams meet for the third time this season. Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh, 17-14, in Week 4 (with Roethlisberger still serving a suspension) in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh turned the tides in Week 13, with a 13-10 victory in Baltimore. Both games have been decided by a field goal. The Ravens are coming off a 30-7 victory against the Chiefs, while the Steelers had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
Anquan Boldin. If Boldin gets space to work, I can see the Ravens winning this one. His ability to run in traffic after the catch is second to none among wide receivers. The key will be catching those passes behind the linebackers and working against the secondary. Think back to Super Bowl XLIII and the damage done by Boldin and Fitzgerald once they got into open space.
Brian
Baltimore: Red-zone offense. Baltimore clearly outplayed the Chiefs in their matchup last week, but still only held a 16-7 lead late in the third quarter. The Baltimore defense forced 5 turnovers, but the Chiefs defense held the Ravens to field goals three times in the red zone, including a goal-line stand. Against the stingy Pittsburgh defense, it will be critical for Baltimore to make the most of any red zone chances. Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns could be costly.
Pittsburgh: The offensive line. The Ravens defense can be terrifying, but it is even more so with the Steelers offensive line struggles (43 sacks, 8th worst in the NFL). Getting pressure on Roethlisberger is the key to forcing turnovers and keeping him from finding his big weapons down the field. Flozell Adams and Chris Kemoatu will also have to work on avoiding holding calls, which have plagued them this season.
Prediction
Matt
Originally I was going to go with the Ravens in this one, but I just don't see the Steelers losing to the same team at home twice in the same year. Rashard Mendenhall's ability to run with power between the tackles could be the deciding factor. Both teams have punishing defenses, yet the Ravens run defense has been able to fall off from it's former glory. Steelers 24, Ravens 14
Brian
This game will once again come down to a field goal, but with the reemergence of Ray Rice recently and a healthy Todd Heap, I believe the Ravens will come out on top. Ravens 24, Steelers 21
Green Bay at Atlanta - Saturday 8:00 PM
The two teams meet again, after their thriller in Week 12. Atlanta came out on top, 20-17, in front of their home crowd. The Packers are coming off a big win against the favored Eagles in Philadelphia, whereas the Falcons were the top seed in the NFC and have home field advantage.
X-Factors
Matt
James Starks. If Starks has success on the ground like he did in the Eagles game, I just can't see the Packers losing this one. By using the "grind it out" style the Packer defense, which thrives on it's outside speed, should stay fresh letting them play at a higher level.
Brian
Green Bay: John Kuhn. The Packers have been very consistent in converting third-and-short situations, mainly due to the power rushing of John Kuhn. Last week in Philadelphia, the Eagles stopped Kuhn twice on third and short situations, leading to scoring drives. If Kuhn can be a factor in this game, on third-downs and also to spell Starks/Jackson effectively, it will be a long day for the Falcons defense.
Atlanta: Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez. Everyone knows that Roddy White has been the MVP for the Falcons this year, registering 115 catches for 1389 yards and 10 TD’s. However, he has the tall task of going up against Charles Woodson, the reigning defensive player of the year. That matchup is intriguing, but the big x-factor will be how Atlanta’s secondary targets, Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez, perform. He will be covered mainly by Tremond Williams, who registered the game-ending interception against Philly and was a huge pro-bowl snub this year. Nick Collins is also a threat at safety, so Jenkins and Gonzalez will have to find seams to help Ryan when White is blanketed by Woodson.
Prediction
Matt
This is the only road team I'm taking this weekend, even though they are playing one the best home teams in the NFL. The Falcons have been the steadiest team in the NFL this season, while not being spectacular they have been impressively consistent. It's tough to point to anything that stands out, but they are very good in all fazes of the game. While execution can take you deep into the playoffs, I just don't see it taking them past the Packers. The ability to run the ball during last week's game against the Eagles makes the Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense that much more dangerous. Packers 27, Falcons 23
Brian
This game will be close, but Atlanta holds at home. Matt Ryan is 20-2 in his career, and I don’t see him losing here. Atlanta 28, Green Bay 21
Seattle at Chicago
The teams met early in the season, with Seattle stunning the Bears 23-20 in Chicago. The Seahawks pulled off the upset of the playoffs with a 41-36 win over the defending champion Saints, while the Bears are the second seed in the NFC and had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
The weather. Since Chicago's winter weather is so unpredictable and Soldier Field is the windiest stadium in the NFL, it's possible this game could be decided by the conditions. Heavy snow, high wind or brutal temperatures could play a major role. Bad weather still favors the Bears since they have the superior defense, but it could turn into field position battle, which could go either way.
Brian
Seattle: Defense. The Seahawks proved something that everyone knew against the Saints: their defense is still bad. Against the Saints, however, they were able to feast on their home crowd and on the Saints weak secondary. The Bears are a totally different animal on defense. They will not score 41 points this week to bail them out, so the key will be for their defense to pester Jay Cutler and hope that he makes mistakes.
Chicago: Pass rush. Matt Hasselbeck, although he has made mistakes this year, can still get it done barring that he has time to survey the field. It will be critical for the Bears to rattle Matt Hasselbeck and force him to throw on the run/out of the pocket. Hasselbeck is prone to turnovers, and he was able to avoid them last week. If the Bears can force Hasselbeck into some easy turnovers, this game will become a laugher in a hurry.
Prediction
Matt
Watching last week's Saints @ Seahawks game I felt more like the Saints defense was blowing it rather than the Seahawks offense winning it. This was shown by the astoundingly poor tackling on Marshawn Lynch's game sealing run. That being said, this game is not in Seattle. The Seahawks offense will need to go into the notoriously bad weather of Soldier Field in January , while trying to score on one of the NFL's stingiest defenses. I just don't see that happnening. While I don't expect the Bears to light up the scoreboard, they will score enough to win. Bears 17, Seahawks 7
Brian
The magic runs out for Seattle. The Bears play stingy defense, and pound the weak Seattle defense all day. Bears 35, Seattle 10
New York Jets at New England
The most hyped of the matchups. New England lost to the Jets, in the Meadowlands, way back in Week 2 by a score of 28-14. Since then, the Patriots have only gone 13-1, with the lone bump being a surprising loss to the Browns. This also included a 45-3 whooping of the Jets in their last matchup. The Jets were the 6th seed in the AFC, and defeated the Colts on a last second field goal 17-16 in their wild card matchup. The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC, and had a first round bye.
X-Factors
Matt
Coaching. While Rex Ryan is a very successful defensive coach any way you look at it, he does not seem to have the correct makeup for a head coach. During this season he has shown poor game management skills, which have included some strange timeouts and some dubious challenges. His opposition is widely regarded as the best active coach and is arguably one of the greatest head coaches the NFL has ever seen.
Brian
New York: Mark Sanchez. It might seem like a cop out to say the QB is the X-Factor, but in this case, it is true. The only player that had an off-game against the Colts was Mark Sanchez. His completion percentage was low, and he threw a costly interception in the end zone. His running backs had a great game, but Sanchez still consistently overthrew receivers. He made a big throw at the end to get his team the victory, but it is imperative that he makes very few mistakes. We all know that his counterpart, the almost certain NFL MVP Tom Brady, will not make those types of mistakes.
New England: Defensive line. The Jets are always more dangerous when they run the ball well. Against the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene looked rejuvenated, and were the key to winning in Indianapolis. The Patriots defensive line is their weak link on defense, being held together by the strong play of Vince Wilfork. Mike Wright and Myron Pryor are hurt, which could lead to less pressure on Sanchez. Sanchez is not accurate by any means, but if he gets more time due to a lack of pass rush, he has some dangerous weapons.
Prediction
Matt
If the Patriots had won both regular season matchups, I would have actually gone with the Jets in this one, based on the fact that it's nearly impossible to beat the same good team 3 times in a season. Despite that, I don't see this being nearly the blowout that we saw in Week 13. I think it's clear that while the Jets have more raw talent, the Patriots squeeze more out of their talent than any other team in the league. Patriots 31, Jets 13
Brian
The Patriots will not blow out the Jets. In fact, the Jets have looked better recently, so I expect the game to be a lot closer than the 45-3 pounding last time. That being said, very few teams beat Tom Brady in Foxboro, and the Jets will have very few mistakes to capitalize on. Patriots 34, Jets 24
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