AL East
Barring injury, the Red Sox are the team to beat in the East, they have a comparable roster to the Yankees with much deeper starting pitching. Injuries could be an issue and they aren't getting any younger. The Yankees lack top end talent in the rotation beyond Sabathia, but still have a high quality lineup that makes them a contender. The age of the team will likely catch up with these guys at some point, possibly later in the season, but a strong start will let them rest the veterans during the stretch run. The Tampa Bay Rays lost a number of components (Garza, Crawford and Pena), while maintaining a number of talented young players. The replacements are extremely unlikely to match the success of their predecessors, but their pitching is still strong enough to keep them above .500 yet again. Baltimore showed real talent with their success during the stretch run last season under Buck Showalter. Despite that, there are still 3 teams in their division that are simply better. Will they could be a contender in a weaker division, but in this one, they are looking to escape the cellar. The Blue Jays finally got rid of their albatross contract (Vernon Wells) and exchanged Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie, the influx of talent could be the start of some positive momentum for a team largely in neutral. While the Wells and Marcum trades are good long term, they don't help the team for this year, the Jays could hover around .500, but still finish in last.
AL Central
AL West
The Rangers have effectively exchanged Adrian Beltre for Vladimir Guerrero, which seems like a positive exchange for the reigning AL Champs. The starting pitching doesn't inspire confidence and the Rangers will need strong seasons from CJ Wilson and Tommy Hunter to make a playoff run again this year. The Angels dropped to 3rd last season for the first time since 2003 (also the last time they finished sub-.500. This should be a bounce back season with a full season from Dan Haren, but the window is closing with a number of contributors getting into the twilight of their careers. The A's are a popular pick to win this division, returning to their former 'Moneyball' glory, but I don't see it happening. These guys are still going to struggling keeping up with their opponents offensively and I don't see the pitching staff being quite good enough to put them up top. The Mariners are going to have problems scoring runs again, after putting up a laughable 3.17 runs/game in 2011. The pitching staff behind Felix Hernandez is full of question marks, making the Mariners my pick for the AL's worst record in 2011.
Playoff Picks
AL Playoffs
Twins over Yankees in 5
Red Sox over Rangers in 4
Twins over Red Sox in 7
NL Playoffs
Braves over Brewers in 4
Phillies over Dodgers in 3
Braves over Phillies in 6
World Series
Twins over Braves in 5
In the coming week, I'm going to try to put out some statistical predictions for the season for every player currently slotted in starting lineups and starting rotations throughout the league. I will also try to make special considerations for players that are likely to play in more than half of this seasons games (i.e. platoon players, super subs, etc.).
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees (Wild Card)
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
Barring injury, the Red Sox are the team to beat in the East, they have a comparable roster to the Yankees with much deeper starting pitching. Injuries could be an issue and they aren't getting any younger. The Yankees lack top end talent in the rotation beyond Sabathia, but still have a high quality lineup that makes them a contender. The age of the team will likely catch up with these guys at some point, possibly later in the season, but a strong start will let them rest the veterans during the stretch run. The Tampa Bay Rays lost a number of components (Garza, Crawford and Pena), while maintaining a number of talented young players. The replacements are extremely unlikely to match the success of their predecessors, but their pitching is still strong enough to keep them above .500 yet again. Baltimore showed real talent with their success during the stretch run last season under Buck Showalter. Despite that, there are still 3 teams in their division that are simply better. Will they could be a contender in a weaker division, but in this one, they are looking to escape the cellar. The Blue Jays finally got rid of their albatross contract (Vernon Wells) and exchanged Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie, the influx of talent could be the start of some positive momentum for a team largely in neutral. While the Wells and Marcum trades are good long term, they don't help the team for this year, the Jays could hover around .500, but still finish in last.
AL Central
- Minnesota Twins
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago White Sox
- Kansas City Royals
- Cleveland Indians
AL West
- Texas Rangers
- LA Angels
- Oakland Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
The Rangers have effectively exchanged Adrian Beltre for Vladimir Guerrero, which seems like a positive exchange for the reigning AL Champs. The starting pitching doesn't inspire confidence and the Rangers will need strong seasons from CJ Wilson and Tommy Hunter to make a playoff run again this year. The Angels dropped to 3rd last season for the first time since 2003 (also the last time they finished sub-.500. This should be a bounce back season with a full season from Dan Haren, but the window is closing with a number of contributors getting into the twilight of their careers. The A's are a popular pick to win this division, returning to their former 'Moneyball' glory, but I don't see it happening. These guys are still going to struggling keeping up with their opponents offensively and I don't see the pitching staff being quite good enough to put them up top. The Mariners are going to have problems scoring runs again, after putting up a laughable 3.17 runs/game in 2011. The pitching staff behind Felix Hernandez is full of question marks, making the Mariners my pick for the AL's worst record in 2011.
Playoff Picks
AL Playoffs
Twins over Yankees in 5
Red Sox over Rangers in 4
Twins over Red Sox in 7
NL Playoffs
Braves over Brewers in 4
Phillies over Dodgers in 3
Braves over Phillies in 6
World Series
Twins over Braves in 5
In the coming week, I'm going to try to put out some statistical predictions for the season for every player currently slotted in starting lineups and starting rotations throughout the league. I will also try to make special considerations for players that are likely to play in more than half of this seasons games (i.e. platoon players, super subs, etc.).
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