Since nobody is interested in hearing my breakdown of every player, so I'm simply going to mention observations from watching individual drills by group. Day 4 is the “secondary” day at the combine featuring all of the cornerbacks and safeties. Many of the college CBs are looked at as potential NFL safeties, particularly those with less speed.

Defensive Backs
40 yard dash
Beyond the WRs, the 40 is most important to the DBs especially considering they spend their games chasing those guys all over the field. I was very surprised that only 2 guys ran sub 4.4, Demarcus van Dyke of Miami did run a top caliber 4.28 and Patrick Peterson of LSU ran a 4.34. Two others did run 4.4 dead (Chimdi Chekwa of Ohio St. and Chris Culliver of South Carolina). Typically I look for time at or below 4.5 from a CB and usually hope for a 4.65 or better from a safety.

3 Cone Drill and Shuttles
Since defensive backs are so reliant on recovery skills and reactionary quickness, these drills allow a measurable way to compare players. Buster Skrine of Tennessee-Chattanooga won the 3-cone drill with a 6.44, the 60-yard shuttle with a 10.75 and tied Idaho's Shiloh Keo for 1st with a 3.90 in the 20-yard shuttle. I was very surprised by Keo's time in both the 20-yard shuttle and 3 cone drill given his portly build and mediocre time in the 40-yard.

On-field Drills and Footwork
Their was a perceptible difference between cornerbacks and safeties throughout this drills. It was obvious that the safeties were generally uncomfortable in the backpedal, but quicker running downhill. The cornerbacks tended to stay much lower when running backwards and turning. Also the muscularity in the upper body of most safeties was noticeable, while many of the CBs had much learner frames. Nobody stood out as being especially incapable of running with players at the next level. Also I didn't see any safeties that looked like they could bulk up and transition down to the linebacker level.

Other notes
The players in this years class seem much bigger than I can every remember. It seemed like a fair number of corners were at least 6', whereas many active corners are 5'10” and below. I'm not surprised by the increase since the DBs have been trailing behind a lot of #1 receivers in the size department for the last couple of seasons. Ras-I Dowling has one of those names that I can't stand because it seems to have been given just to be unique. Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, the top 2 prospects among the DBs, certainly did nothing to hurt their draft stock. I find it funny that Texas sent a pair of guys with the last name Brown that aren't related (Chykie and Curtis).

Since nobody is interested in hearing my breakdown of every player, so I'm simply going to mention observations from watching individual drills by group. Day 3 is the “front 7” day at the combine seeing the defensive lineman and linebackers. A number of the players in the respective groups appear to have the flexibility to play at multiple positions, which is especially important with the wide variety of sets seen by individual teams in the NFL these days.

Defensive Line
40 yard dash
The full 40 isn't too meaningful to these guys beyond pride, but the 10 yard split is more crucial here than with any other position. At this point even most of the DTs run sub 5. Some of the players put down 10-yard splits in the low 1.6s, including Sam Acho at 1.60s dead, Chris Carter at 1.62s, Marvin Austin at 1.63s and Ryan Kerrigan 1.65s. For reference, yesterday's average 10-yard split was 1.63s. It's worth mentioning that Dontay Moch ran a 4.44 with 1.61 10-yard split, which would be right at home at safety, quite impressive for a guy that played DE at Nevada.

Bench Press
Like the offensive lineman, the bench is unlikely to build your draft stock, but a poor showing could be disastrous or signal a need to move to LB. Stephen Paea deserves mention here with his unbelievable 49 reps, which is the best total this millennium at the combine by any player at any position. He also out lifted all other players this year by 11 reps, barring an absurd total by a DB tomorrow.

On-field Drills and Footwork
The players in this years class seem more athletic than I can every remember. The 300+ pound D-tackles can now run like OLBs a decade ago. Most of the defensive ends move around like LBs, which is probably good because they will likely need to drop into coverage at some point with all of the new NFL schemes.

Other notes
Ryan Kerrigan needs a haircut. This year's class at DL looks spectacular, which is good news for a lot of teams. I wouldn't be surprised if 1/4 of this season's 1st round was composed of guys that played as down lineman in college. Both Nick Fairley of Auburn and Marcell Dareus of Alabama look like top end Dts, but teams will likely be looking at them as the next Suh. I'm not sure either is quite at that level, but they could have a Gerald McCoy type impact as rookies. One of the drills required the lineman to drop back into coverage and try to catch a pass, which showed that hands is a rare skill at this position.

Linebackers
40 yard dash
This event certainly matters more for linebackers than for DLs, especially for coverage guys, OLBs in the 4-3 and middle linebackers in the Cover 2. Martez Wilson from Illinois was the only man to break 4.5 today, just barely, with 4.49 which is surprising given his impressive size, 6'4” 250lb. Von Miller of Texas A&M (4.53) and the undersized Brian Rolle of Ohio St. (4.56) were the only others to break 4.6 among the LBs. Rolle is only 5'10”, 229lbs which means he'll need to prove that he has elite instincts and solid tackling ability if he's ever going to start at the NFL level.

Footwork, Coverage and Mobility
Nobody really jumped out at me in this set of drills, except for Akeem Ayers of UCLA. He possessed the quickness and agility of much smaller player than his 6'3” 254lb frame would suggest. Von Miller obviously has talent, but he seemed to be pressing all day. When he just calms down and plays his game, he is clearly one of the best if not the best LB prospect in this draft. A few of the smaller LBs looked like safeties with their mobility, but none of them possess the speed to match up against pro receivers downfield. Guys that meet this criteria are Mike Mohamed of Cal, Adrian Moten of Maryland and Lawrence Wilson of Connecticut.

Other notes
Mark Herzlich was a top notch prospect before cancer, now that he's recovered, he no longer looks like a first round talent. Despite that he'd probably be one of the best reaches a team could possibly make because he leads this group in intangibles. The natural leadership and camaraderie of LBs as a group was clear throughout the afternoon. More than any other group, these guys were rooting each other on, high fiving, and generally enjoying football.  Due to an injury, Clay Matthews younger brother, Casey was unable to participate in the combine.  Luckily for him his bloodlines will likely get him drafted earlier than a guy with the same skills, but with a different name. 

Since nobody is interested in hearing my breakdown of every player, so I'm simply going to mention observations from watching individual drills by group. Day 2 is unofficially the “skill position” day at the combine seeing the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers trying to impress. This is generally considered the most interesting because you see most of the fastest 40 times of the whole combine 

Quarterbacks
40 yard dash
This event means a lot to some of these guys and virtually nothing to others. Mobile QBs need to put up decent times to show that their speed translates to the next level. If you're a pocket passer, none of the teams will care if your slow, considering that Marino, Manning and Brady aren't exactly burners. Jake Locker ran an unofficial 4.52 (both times) which would blow away most of the NFL's “mobile” throwers. His final, official time was 4.59 matching that of Cam Newton. Tyrod Taylor of Virginia Tech ran a very impressive 4.51 and Colin Kaepernick of Nevada ran a 4.53 which qualifies both as elite NFL QB speed.

Wonderlic
The Wonderlic results are never really officially released, but they generally leak out for a fair number of players. I was unable to track down this year's tests, but they may become available within the week. QB is one of the few positions where this really matters since it's the most cerebral position on the field. Anything above 30 at QB should be considered good enough, it's not necessarily a red flag if you score below (Peyton Manning scored a reported 25), but those guys need to prove they really know football. 

Throwing Drills and Footwork
The majority of drills focus on the WRs so the QBs were not fully covered by the TV cameras. Some of the footwork drills were shown, but due to the proliferation of the spread offense almost half of the QBs are still developing their 5 and 7 step drops. Ryan Mallett throws impressive ball, the release is very powerful and comes out sharply with a tight spiral, but you always wonder if the skills will translate at the next level.

Other notes
Ryan Colburn of Fresno State looks like Steve Young not stylistically, but physically, in terms of stature. Cam Newton and Jake Locker were impressive in all of the agility, quickness and speed drills yet both are still questionable in the throwing accuracy and game reading department.

Wide Receivers
40 yard dash
While every position runs the 40 it is most important for WRs considering that they are the only ones that frequently run that far in a straight line, especially those who are being looked at as special teamers. Their weren't any absolute stunners this year, but Edmond Gates of Abilene Christian, Ricardo Lockette of Fort Valley State and Julio Jones of Alabama all ran sub-4.4, which is still exceptional.

3 Cone Drill
This is a good measure of quickness and agility along with the 20 and 60 yard shuttles. Players that excel here tend to have the ability to run sharp, crisp routes. While not always as explosive they tend to make good slot receivers. Jeffrey Maehl of Oregon finished 1st or 2nd in all of these events, only losing to Boise State's Austin Pettis in the 20-yard shuttle. In recent years, success in these events hasn't necessarily been a good thing considering that none of the top performers have excelled at the next level.

Vertical Leap/Broad Jump
Both jumps give you an idea of a guy's range. Performing well in these events demonstrates an ability to get to more balls. When a big vertical pairs with a 6'3”+ WR you have a guy that provides a foot of vertical separation from the majority of NFL defensive backs (think Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald). This year's big vertical came from Jonathan Baldwin of Pittsburgh who is 6'4” and leapt 42”. Julio Jones' broad jump was 4” further than any of the other WRs at a phenomenal 11'3”.

Route Running and Catching Drills
Leonard Hankerson of Miami showed poor hands throughout the drills (particularly his first gauntlet run), but that doesn't always hurt draft stock because certain teams get obsessed with the “height, weight, speed” players.

Other notes
Edmund Gates has character questions, which seems par for the course at WR, but most of those guys don't have fathers that have been convicted of murder. It makes him look like a real Bengals or Jets kind of guy where he'd fit right in with their respective rap sheets. Julio Jones and AJ Green are largely considered the top 2 WRs and extremely likely going in the 1st half of the 1st round. Going into the combine AJ Green was ranked as the #1 positionally, but based on Jones' measurables its likely that he jumped over Green on a few draft boards.

Running Backs
40 yard dash
Da'Rel Scott of Maryland ran a stellar 4.34 which paced the RBs with Mario Fannin of Auburn trailing close behind with a 4.38. Despite this, 40-yard dash is not a critical drill for RBs because it only gives you an idea of their breakaway speed. On the other hand, the 10 yard split provides a strong indication of initial burst which is crucial coming out of the backfield. The FBs participating as part of this group have almost no interest in 40 time because they make their living on running power and blocking strength.

3 Cone Drill
Quickness, hip flexibility and lateral mobility can all be shown by the 3 cone drill. Typically smallish runners and 3rd down back types perform well here. Ray Rice has the record in the last 5 years with a 6.65s, but Graig Cooper of Miami and Roy Helu of Nebraska ran 6.66s and 6.67s. Other top performers in recent years include Ahmad Bradshaw, Jahvid Best and Jamaal Charles. Cooper and Helu also finshed top 2 in the 20-yard shuttle

Footwork and Running Drills
There seemed to be a sharp delineation between the short and tall RBs. Most guys under 5'11” excelled in the mobility and lateral quickness department, while most the taller guys struggled. Jacquizz Rodgers looks like Ray Rice in both stature and running ability, I don't know enough about his catching ability to know whether he'll be a big factor in the passing game going forward. Damien Berry of Miami ran one of the drills incorrectly, which demonstrates a lack of concentration that may cause problems at the next level.

Other notes
Based on the shear number of guys with fully tattooed arms, I think RBs lead the league as a group in tattoos/person, barely edging out the WRs. Roy Helu of Nebraska set RB records in the 20-yard and 60-yard shuttles for the years since the NFL combine has been televised (2006-present), so if he doesn't make it as a runner he could always go the special teams route. Ingram dropped about 15 pounds to slim down and quicken up, but in my opinion he looks too slender right now to work as a power runner in the NFL. He also has a tendency to make a lot of noise and do a lot of grunting when he's running.

This weekend saw the beginning of the NFL Combine's onfield drills. In recent years the public exposure has been ratcheted up, with coverage available on NFL.com, as well as, on the NFL Network. Since nobody is interested in hearing my breakdown of every player, so I'm simply going to mention observations from watching individual drills by group. Day 1 was composed of offensive lineman, tight ends, and special teamers (namely kickers and punters).

Offensive Line
40 yard dash
The full 40 time is virtually meaningless for O-lineman, but the 10 and 20 yard splits can provide a lot more important information. Jason Kelce of Cincinnati and Ryan Bartholomew of Syracuse did both manage sub 5 seconds.

Bench Press
This drill is simply the maximum number of reps at 225lbs. This event actually occurred yesterday but there was a quick recap this afternoon. Bartholomew again paced the field putting up a very impressive 34 reps and supposedly maxes out at 585 lbs, which is spectacular even for an NFL lineman.

Footwork and Blocking Drills
The players also go through a battery of mobility, blocking and footwork drills that are not measured quantitatively. In my estimations the clear standouts here were unsurprising, being Anthony Castonzo and Gabe Carimi. The top 2 O-line prospects did nothing to hurt themselves here.

Other notes
Brandon Fusco of Slippery Rock is “looking to be the first player from his school to get drafted” and based on what he showed today, he should be drafted. In addition, he looks to be a high energy guy that will give full effort on every play. James Carpenter of Alabama was the most intimidating player at today's combine. The wild dreadlocks and beard makes a big guy look even larger and makes him look slightly crazy. Carimi looks like a TE with his relatively slim build for a tackle, despite that his strength, size and hands make him a great candidate for stopping speed rushers. Adam Grant of Arizona has classic lineman size and strength, but his technique and footwork looked poor. He'd need a lot of coaching from whoever drafts him.

Tights Ends
40 yard dash
Nobody came close to Vernon Davis' absurd 4.38 with Florida Atlantic's Robert Housler winning with a 4.55 (which is still pretty quick). The other top performers Virgil Green and Jordan Cameron, but more on them in the 'other notes' section below.

3 Cone Drill
This drill is a great measure of agility and quickness in and out of cuts. The top TEs in this drill are virtually WRs in bigger bodies (think Dallas Clark). Jordan Cameron put up the winning time edging out Schuyler Oordt of UNI and Zack Pianalto of UNC all of whom ran below 6.90, which was the time put up by Mike Wallace of the Steelers when he was at the combine.

Bench Press
Charlie Gantt of Michigan St., Luke Stocker of Tennessee, Lee Smith of Marshall, Lance Kendricks of Wisconsin are all put up at least 25 reps in the bench. They are all big and strong enough to survive as blocking TEs in the NFL but likely will not excel in the passing game.

Footwork, Blocking and Catching Drills
The inconsistency of the combine QBs had a distinct effect on the TEs performance in the basic route running drills. Personally I love the “Gauntlet” drill which requires a quick succession of 7 passes both stationary and on the run. I was disappointed in Lance Kendricks' which almost ensures that he won't be targeted much at the next level. Zach Pianalto was particularly impressive in the catching drills, where he caught almost everything while snatch the ball out of the air well away from his body.

Other notes
Virgil Green of Nevada won the Broad Jump and Vertical Leap while finishing top 3 in the 40 yard, the 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. Supposedly, Green may have problems grasping a complex offense, but I imagine that athleticism will be enticing to many. Jordan Cameron of USC won the 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. Finished top 3 in the 40 yard, Vertical Leap, and Broad Jump. Still developing as a blocker due to his basketball and WR background, but a lot of former college basketball players are having great success in the pros right now.

Special Teamers
There weren't any real drills shown for the kickers and punters, but this is a position at which the transition from college to the pros is relatively easy. The combine doesn't mean much for these guys because past performance is the major indicator, unless you're David Buehler and want to show off in the bench press and 40.

We have made predictions for all of the games in the NFL Divisional playoff round.  All picks will be made without the spread since it's the playoffs and we're not trying to give out betting advice.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Saturday, 4:30 PM

The two teams meet for the third time this season.  Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh, 17-14, in Week 4 (with Roethlisberger still serving a suspension) in Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh turned the tides in Week 13, with a 13-10 victory in Baltimore.  Both games have been decided by a field goal.  The Ravens are coming off a 30-7 victory against the Chiefs, while the Steelers had a first round bye.

X-Factors

Matt

Anquan Boldin.  If Boldin gets space to work, I can see the Ravens winning this one.  His ability to run in traffic after the catch is second to none among wide receivers.  The key will be catching those passes behind the linebackers and working against the secondary.  Think back to Super Bowl XLIII and the damage done by Boldin and Fitzgerald once they got into open space.

Brian

Baltimore:  Red-zone offense.  Baltimore clearly outplayed the Chiefs in their matchup last week, but still only held a 16-7 lead late in the third quarter.  The Baltimore defense forced 5 turnovers, but the Chiefs defense held the Ravens to field goals three times in the red zone, including a goal-line stand.  Against the stingy Pittsburgh defense, it will be critical for Baltimore to make the most of any red zone chances.  Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns could be costly.

Pittsburgh:  The offensive line.  The Ravens defense can be terrifying, but it is even more so with the Steelers offensive line struggles (43 sacks, 8th worst in the NFL). Getting pressure on Roethlisberger is the key to forcing turnovers and keeping him from finding his big weapons down the field.  Flozell Adams and Chris Kemoatu will also have to work on avoiding holding calls, which have plagued them this season.

Prediction

Matt

Originally I was going to go with the Ravens in this one, but I just don't see the Steelers losing to the same team at home twice in the same year.  Rashard Mendenhall's ability to run with power between the tackles could be the deciding factor.  Both teams have punishing defenses, yet the Ravens run defense has been able to fall off from it's former glory.  Steelers 24, Ravens 14

Brian

This game will once again come down to a field goal, but with the reemergence of Ray Rice recently and a healthy Todd Heap, I believe the Ravens will come out on top.  Ravens 24, Steelers 21

Green Bay at Atlanta - Saturday 8:00 PM

The two teams meet again, after their thriller in Week 12.  Atlanta came out on top, 20-17, in front of their home crowd.  The Packers are coming off a big win against the favored Eagles in Philadelphia, whereas the Falcons were the top seed in the NFC and have home field advantage.

X-Factors

Matt

James Starks.  If Starks has success on the ground like he did in the Eagles game, I just can't see the Packers losing this one.  By using the "grind it out" style the Packer defense, which thrives on it's outside speed, should stay fresh letting them play at a higher level.

Brian

Green Bay:  John Kuhn.  The Packers have been very consistent in converting third-and-short situations, mainly due to the power rushing of John Kuhn.  Last week in Philadelphia, the Eagles stopped Kuhn twice on third and short situations, leading to scoring drives.  If Kuhn can be a factor in this game, on third-downs and also to spell Starks/Jackson effectively, it will be a long day for the Falcons defense.

Atlanta: Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez.  Everyone knows that Roddy White has been the MVP for the Falcons this year, registering 115 catches for 1389 yards and 10 TD’s.  However, he has the tall task of going up against Charles Woodson, the reigning defensive player of the year.  That matchup is intriguing, but the big x-factor will be how Atlanta’s secondary targets, Michael Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez, perform.  He will be covered mainly by Tremond Williams, who registered the game-ending interception against Philly and was a huge pro-bowl snub this year.  Nick Collins is also a threat at safety, so Jenkins and Gonzalez will have to find seams to help Ryan when White is blanketed by Woodson.

Prediction

Matt

This is the only road team I'm taking this weekend, even though they are playing one the best home teams in the NFL.  The Falcons have been the steadiest team in the NFL this season, while not being spectacular they have been impressively consistent.  It's tough to point to anything that stands out, but they are very good in all fazes of the game.  While execution can take you deep into the playoffs, I just don't see it taking them past the Packers.  The ability to run the ball during last week's game against the Eagles makes the Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense that much more dangerous.  Packers 27, Falcons 23

Brian

This game will be close, but Atlanta holds at home.  Matt Ryan is 20-2 in his career, and I don’t see him losing here.  Atlanta 28, Green Bay 21

Seattle at Chicago

The teams met early in the season, with Seattle stunning the Bears 23-20 in Chicago.  The Seahawks pulled off the upset of the playoffs with a 41-36 win over the defending champion Saints, while the Bears are the second seed in the NFC and had a first round bye. 

X-Factors

Matt

The weather.  Since Chicago's winter weather is so unpredictable and Soldier Field is the windiest stadium in the NFL, it's possible this game could be decided by the conditions.  Heavy snow, high wind or brutal temperatures could play a major role.  Bad weather still favors the Bears since they have the superior defense, but it could turn into field position battle, which could go either way.

Brian

Seattle: Defense.  The Seahawks proved something that everyone knew against the Saints: their defense is still bad.   Against the Saints, however, they were able to feast on their home crowd and on the Saints weak secondary.  The Bears are a totally different animal on defense.  They will not score 41 points this week to bail them out, so the key will be for their defense to pester Jay Cutler and hope that he makes mistakes.

Chicago: Pass rush.  Matt Hasselbeck, although he has made mistakes this year, can still get it done barring that he has time to survey the field.  It will be critical for the Bears to rattle Matt Hasselbeck and force him to throw on the run/out of the pocket.  Hasselbeck is prone to turnovers, and he was able to avoid them last week.  If the Bears can force Hasselbeck into some easy turnovers, this game will become a laugher in a hurry.

Prediction

Matt

Watching last week's Saints @ Seahawks game I felt more like the Saints defense was blowing it rather than the Seahawks offense winning it.  This was shown by the astoundingly poor tackling on Marshawn Lynch's game sealing run.  That being said, this game is not in Seattle.  The Seahawks offense will need to go into the notoriously bad weather of Soldier Field in January , while trying to score on one of the NFL's stingiest defenses.  I just don't see that happnening.  While I don't expect the Bears to light up the scoreboard, they will score enough to win.  Bears 17, Seahawks 7

Brian

The magic runs out for Seattle.  The Bears play stingy defense, and pound the weak Seattle defense all day.  Bears 35, Seattle 10

New York Jets at New England

The most hyped of the matchups.  New England lost to the Jets, in the Meadowlands, way back in Week 2 by a score of 28-14.  Since then, the Patriots have only gone 13-1, with the lone bump being a surprising loss to the Browns.  This also included a 45-3 whooping of the Jets in their last matchup.  The Jets were the 6th seed in the AFC, and defeated the Colts on a last second field goal 17-16 in their wild card matchup.  The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC, and had a first round bye.

X-Factors

Matt

Coaching.  While Rex Ryan is a very successful defensive coach any way you look at it, he does not seem to have the correct makeup for a head coach.  During this season he has shown poor game management skills, which have included some strange timeouts and some dubious challenges.  His opposition is widely regarded as the best active coach and is arguably one of the greatest head coaches the NFL has ever seen.

Brian

New York: Mark Sanchez.  It might seem like a cop out to say the QB is the X-Factor, but in this case, it is true.  The only player that had an off-game against the Colts was Mark Sanchez.  His completion percentage was low, and he threw a costly interception in the end zone.  His running backs had a great game, but Sanchez still consistently overthrew receivers.  He made a big throw at the end to get his team the victory, but it is imperative that he makes very few mistakes.  We all know that his counterpart, the almost certain NFL MVP Tom Brady, will not make those types of mistakes.

New England: Defensive line.  The Jets are always more dangerous when they run the ball well.  Against the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene looked rejuvenated, and were the key to winning in Indianapolis.  The Patriots defensive line is their weak link on defense, being held together by the strong play of Vince Wilfork.  Mike Wright and Myron Pryor are hurt, which could lead to less pressure on Sanchez.  Sanchez is not accurate by any means, but if he gets more time due to a lack of pass rush, he has some dangerous weapons. 

Prediction

Matt

If the Patriots had won both regular season matchups, I would have actually gone with the Jets in this one, based on the fact that it's nearly impossible to beat the same good team 3 times in a season.  Despite that, I don't see this being nearly the blowout that we saw in Week 13.  I think it's clear that while the Jets have more raw talent, the Patriots squeeze more out of their talent than any other team in the league.  Patriots 31, Jets 13

Brian

The Patriots will not blow out the Jets.  In fact, the Jets have looked better recently, so I expect the game to be a lot closer than the 45-3 pounding last time.  That being said, very few teams beat Tom Brady in Foxboro, and the Jets will have very few mistakes to capitalize on.  Patriots 34, Jets 24

Despite what most pundits seem to think, the Patriots do not draft better than other teams.  They do in fact trade very well and I'm talking about both draft picks and players.  Great recent trades include Randy Moss (both coming and going), Wes Welker and Matt Cassel.  The Patriots key to player trading is finding the guy that fits their scheme better than the current system the player is in.  In 2006 Wes Welker was the return man and 3rd WR for the 1-15 Miami Dolphins and in 2007 he was the leading receiver for the 16-0 New England Patriots in arguably the greatest offense in NFL history.  Randy Moss was obtained for a 4th round pick in 2007 and sent packing for a 3rd round pick in 2010. The Patriots brought him back to prominence, took 3+ years of his prime and shipped him out for a better draft pick than they spent to bring him in.  Matt Cassel was traded after a surprisingly impressive 2008 campaign while filling in Brady.  With his contract ending the Patriots put the franchise tag on Cassel guaranteeing him nearly $15 million the following season, while giving the Pats full control.  He was then unloaded to the Chiefs, who were desperate need for a true NFL-caliber QB, for basically a 2nd round pick in return.  For simply securing the rights to a player they couldn't afford, the Patriots leveraged the 34th overall pick in the 2009 Draft. 

Now back to the draft.  While football players project out much better than baseball players there is still no foolproof way to guarantee success.  No team is immune to the bust which exemplified by the Patriots 2006 Draft, which was awful in almost every way possible.

1st round:
RB Laurence Maroney - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 59 games in 5 seasons amassing 2,963 yards (2504 rushing and 459 receiving). 

2nd round:
WR Chad Jackson - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 18 games in parts of 3 seasons racking up 14 receptions for 171 yards.

3rd round:
TE David Thomas - Has been a moderately effective backup and special teams player but has accumulated his best numbers with Saints.  With New England he managed only 21 catches for 261 yards in 3 seasons, while he caught 65 for 575 yards in 2 seasons with the Saints.

4th round:
TE Garrett Mills - 5 seasons, 4 teams, 3 total starts and 9 receptions

K Stephen Gostkowski - 2008 Pro Bowler making it tough to argue that this was not a good pick and a good value as the 118th overall pick and he is the only player from this draft that is still with the team.

5th round:
T Ryan O'Callaghan - 20 career starts, 7 with the Patriots

6th round: 
DE Jeremy Mincey - Never played for the Patriots, but seems to have found a home in Jacksonville, where he started 8 games this season racking up 31 tackles and 5 sacks.

G Dan Stephenson - 0 career games, left the NFL in 2008

DT Le Kevin Smith - 28 tackles, 1 sack in 5 seasons

7th round:
S Willie Andrews - 24 tackles, left the NFL in 2007 

That means that even in a bad draft, 2 picks out of 10 had any impact on the team considering that Maroney was the team’s starting RB for a few seasons and Gostkowski who is clearly still a contributing member.  Therefore the key to their apparent draft success is stocking up draft picks via trades reducing the impact of bad picks.  By year:

2006: 10 picks

2007: 9 picks

2008: 9 picks (1 forfeited) - 8 total

2009: 12 picks

2010: 12 picks

 

Over the course of 5 years they drafted 52 players, taking a success rate of 1 in 5 that means in that span the Patriots would have managed to draft 10 legitimate starters.  Mixing in carryovers (Tom Brady), free agents (Leigh Bodden), trades (Wes Welker), undrafted free agents (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and castoffs (Danny Woodhead) you have a perennial contender.

No team makes draft day trades with the frequency of the Patriots and many times they get great value by letting other teams trade up into their spot.  Generally these are 2 picks for 1 in favor of the team moving down and sometimes even better.  The even greater values come from trading a later round pick for a higher round in the following draft, but I'll discuss this in further detail. 

The other advantage of more players is the mitigation of the effect of injuries.  If you have a single pick and he gets hurt, you no longer have any production.  If you get 2 picks and 1 of them gets injured you still have someone left to play.

In 2009 the Patriots had the 23rd overall pick.  This pick was traded down to the Ravens for the 26th and 162nd picks.  Both of these picks were traded to the Packers for 41st, 73rd and 83rd picks.  Darius Butler was taken with the 41st pick and Brandon Tate was taken with the 83rd pick.  The 73rd pick was traded (what else) to the Jaguars for the 232nd pick and their 2010 2nd round pick.  The 232nd was used to take Julian Edelman.  The 2010 2nd round pick (44th overall) was traded with the 190th pick for the 42nd overall pick which was used to take Rob Gronkowski.

In 2010 the Patriots had the 22nd overall pick.  This pick was traded down to the Broncos for the 24th and the 113th.  The 24th pick was then traded with the 119th pick to the Cowboys for the 27th and 90th picks.  In total the Patriots traded the 22nd and 119th picks for the 27th, 90th and 113th picks which were used to draft Devin McCourty, Taylor Price and Aaron Hernandez.