Despite what most pundits seem to think, the Patriots do not draft better than other teams. They do in fact trade very well and I'm talking about both draft picks and players. Great recent trades include Randy Moss (both coming and going), Wes Welker and Matt Cassel. The Patriots key to player trading is finding the guy that fits their scheme better than the current system the player is in. In 2006 Wes Welker was the return man and 3rd WR for the 1-15 Miami Dolphins and in 2007 he was the leading receiver for the 16-0 New England Patriots in arguably the greatest offense in NFL history. Randy Moss was obtained for a 4th round pick in 2007 and sent packing for a 3rd round pick in 2010. The Patriots brought him back to prominence, took 3+ years of his prime and shipped him out for a better draft pick than they spent to bring him in. Matt Cassel was traded after a surprisingly impressive 2008 campaign while filling in Brady. With his contract ending the Patriots put the franchise tag on Cassel guaranteeing him nearly $15 million the following season, while giving the Pats full control. He was then unloaded to the Chiefs, who were desperate need for a true NFL-caliber QB, for basically a 2nd round pick in return. For simply securing the rights to a player they couldn't afford, the Patriots leveraged the 34th overall pick in the 2009 Draft.
Now back to the draft. While football players project out much better than baseball players there is still no foolproof way to guarantee success. No team is immune to the bust which exemplified by the Patriots 2006 Draft, which was awful in almost every way possible.
1st round:
RB Laurence Maroney - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 59 games in 5 seasons amassing 2,963 yards (2504 rushing and 459 receiving).
2nd round:
WR Chad Jackson - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 18 games in parts of 3 seasons racking up 14 receptions for 171 yards.
3rd round:
TE David Thomas - Has been a moderately effective backup and special teams player but has accumulated his best numbers with Saints. With New England he managed only 21 catches for 261 yards in 3 seasons, while he caught 65 for 575 yards in 2 seasons with the Saints.
4th round:
TE Garrett Mills - 5 seasons, 4 teams, 3 total starts and 9 receptions
K Stephen Gostkowski - 2008 Pro Bowler making it tough to argue that this was not a good pick and a good value as the 118th overall pick and he is the only player from this draft that is still with the team.
5th round:
T Ryan O'Callaghan - 20 career starts, 7 with the Patriots
6th round:
DE Jeremy Mincey - Never played for the Patriots, but seems to have found a home in Jacksonville, where he started 8 games this season racking up 31 tackles and 5 sacks.
G Dan Stephenson - 0 career games, left the NFL in 2008
DT Le Kevin Smith - 28 tackles, 1 sack in 5 seasons
7th round:
S Willie Andrews - 24 tackles, left the NFL in 2007
Now back to the draft. While football players project out much better than baseball players there is still no foolproof way to guarantee success. No team is immune to the bust which exemplified by the Patriots 2006 Draft, which was awful in almost every way possible.
1st round:
RB Laurence Maroney - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 59 games in 5 seasons amassing 2,963 yards (2504 rushing and 459 receiving).
2nd round:
WR Chad Jackson - Due to injury and ineffectiveness he has only played 18 games in parts of 3 seasons racking up 14 receptions for 171 yards.
3rd round:
TE David Thomas - Has been a moderately effective backup and special teams player but has accumulated his best numbers with Saints. With New England he managed only 21 catches for 261 yards in 3 seasons, while he caught 65 for 575 yards in 2 seasons with the Saints.
4th round:
TE Garrett Mills - 5 seasons, 4 teams, 3 total starts and 9 receptions
K Stephen Gostkowski - 2008 Pro Bowler making it tough to argue that this was not a good pick and a good value as the 118th overall pick and he is the only player from this draft that is still with the team.
5th round:
T Ryan O'Callaghan - 20 career starts, 7 with the Patriots
6th round:
DE Jeremy Mincey - Never played for the Patriots, but seems to have found a home in Jacksonville, where he started 8 games this season racking up 31 tackles and 5 sacks.
G Dan Stephenson - 0 career games, left the NFL in 2008
DT Le Kevin Smith - 28 tackles, 1 sack in 5 seasons
7th round:
S Willie Andrews - 24 tackles, left the NFL in 2007
That means that even in a bad draft, 2 picks out of 10 had any impact on the team considering that Maroney was the team’s starting RB for a few seasons and Gostkowski who is clearly still a contributing member. Therefore the key to their apparent draft success is stocking up draft picks via trades reducing the impact of bad picks. By year:
2006: 10 picks
2007: 9 picks
2008: 9 picks (1 forfeited) - 8 total
2009: 12 picks
2010: 12 picks
Over the course of 5 years they drafted 52 players, taking a success rate of 1 in 5 that means in that span the Patriots would have managed to draft 10 legitimate starters. Mixing in carryovers (Tom Brady), free agents (Leigh Bodden), trades (Wes Welker), undrafted free agents (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and castoffs (Danny Woodhead) you have a perennial contender.
No team makes draft day trades with the frequency of the Patriots and many times they get great value by letting other teams trade up into their spot. Generally these are 2 picks for 1 in favor of the team moving down and sometimes even better. The even greater values come from trading a later round pick for a higher round in the following draft, but I'll discuss this in further detail.
The other advantage of more players is the mitigation of the effect of injuries. If you have a single pick and he gets hurt, you no longer have any production. If you get 2 picks and 1 of them gets injured you still have someone left to play.
2006: 10 picks
2007: 9 picks
2008: 9 picks (1 forfeited) - 8 total
2009: 12 picks
2010: 12 picks
Over the course of 5 years they drafted 52 players, taking a success rate of 1 in 5 that means in that span the Patriots would have managed to draft 10 legitimate starters. Mixing in carryovers (Tom Brady), free agents (Leigh Bodden), trades (Wes Welker), undrafted free agents (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and castoffs (Danny Woodhead) you have a perennial contender.
No team makes draft day trades with the frequency of the Patriots and many times they get great value by letting other teams trade up into their spot. Generally these are 2 picks for 1 in favor of the team moving down and sometimes even better. The even greater values come from trading a later round pick for a higher round in the following draft, but I'll discuss this in further detail.
The other advantage of more players is the mitigation of the effect of injuries. If you have a single pick and he gets hurt, you no longer have any production. If you get 2 picks and 1 of them gets injured you still have someone left to play.
In 2009 the Patriots had the 23rd overall pick. This pick was traded down to the Ravens for the 26th and 162nd picks. Both of these picks were traded to the Packers for 41st, 73rd and 83rd picks. Darius Butler was taken with the 41st pick and Brandon Tate was taken with the 83rd pick. The 73rd pick was traded (what else) to the Jaguars for the 232nd pick and their 2010 2nd round pick. The 232nd was used to take Julian Edelman. The 2010 2nd round pick (44th overall) was traded with the 190th pick for the 42nd overall pick which was used to take Rob Gronkowski.
In 2010 the Patriots had the 22nd overall pick. This pick was traded down to the Broncos for the 24th and the 113th. The 24th pick was then traded with the 119th pick to the Cowboys for the 27th and 90th picks. In total the Patriots traded the 22nd and 119th picks for the 27th, 90th and 113th picks which were used to draft Devin McCourty, Taylor Price and Aaron Hernandez.
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